TRUMP VOTERS TRUST INFOWARS AS MUCH AS THE NEW YORK TIMES AND WASHINGTON POST, POLL SHOWS
Forum rules
Keep News and Politics about News and Politics.
Do not post full articles from other websites. Always link back to the source
Discuss things respectfully and take into account that each person has a different opinion.
Remember that this is a place for everyone to enjoy. Don’t try and run people off of the site. If you are upset with someone then utilize the foe feature.
Report when things come up.
Personal attacks are against guidelines however attacks need to be directed at a member on the forum for it to be against guidelines. Lying is not against guidelines, it’s hard for us to prove someone even did lie.
Once a topic is locked we consider the issue handled and no longer respond to new reports on the topic.
Keep News and Politics about News and Politics.
Do not post full articles from other websites. Always link back to the source
Discuss things respectfully and take into account that each person has a different opinion.
Remember that this is a place for everyone to enjoy. Don’t try and run people off of the site. If you are upset with someone then utilize the foe feature.
Report when things come up.
Personal attacks are against guidelines however attacks need to be directed at a member on the forum for it to be against guidelines. Lying is not against guidelines, it’s hard for us to prove someone even did lie.
Once a topic is locked we consider the issue handled and no longer respond to new reports on the topic.
-
- Regent
- Posts: 3107
- Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:53 pm
OmgMother_of_Dragons wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:20 amA new poll from YouGov/The Economist released this week showed folks who voted for Trump in 2016 trust Infowars—the infamous conspiracy site headed by Alex Jones—about as much as the Post or Times.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-voters-t ... ll-1331958
Things get worse with every day!!
That’s really discouraging, isn’t it?
But I’m not surprised.
We see replies here all the time that sound like Alex Jones and Infowars.
Gahhhhh...
- jas
- Donated
-
Princess Royal
- Posts: 8092
- Joined: Fri May 25, 2018 8:33 am
- Location: This space for rent
From the posted article...
"The poll from YouGov/The Economist surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults from February 10 through February 12. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. "
1,500 people. Out of HOW many Trump supporters, people who voted for Trump or just people in general? You can not accurately make that claim based on a mere 1500 people. It's asinine.
- SouthernIslander
- Queen Mother
- Posts: 9391
- Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:48 pm
- Location: Texassippi
I must google this.ReadingRainbow wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:28 am Haha who else saw that guy slap Alex Jones on his show?
Hilarious.
-
- Donated
-
Princess
- Posts: 11250
- Joined: Mon May 21, 2018 11:22 pm
- Aletheia
- Regent
- Posts: 2176
- Joined: Mon May 21, 2018 8:44 pm
- Location: England
jas wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:46 pmFrom the posted article...
"The poll from YouGov/The Economist surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults from February 10 through February 12. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. "
1,500 people. Out of HOW many Trump supporters, people who voted for Trump or just people in general? You can not accurately make that claim based on a mere 1500 people. It's asinine.
Or watch https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statis ... statisticsCochran’s Sample Size Formula
The Cochran formula allows you to calculate an ideal sample size given a desired level of precision, desired confidence level, and the estimated proportion of the attribute present in the population.
Cochran’s formula is considered especially appropriate in situations with large populations. A sample of any given size provides more information about a smaller population than a larger one, so there’s a ‘correction’ through which the number given by Cochran’s formula can be reduced if the whole population is relatively small.
The Cochran formula is:
Where:
e is the desired level of precision (i.e. the margin of error),
p is the (estimated) proportion of the population which has the attribute in question,
q is 1 – p.
The z-value is found in a Z table.
Cochran’s Formula Example
Suppose we are doing a study on the inhabitants of a large town, and want to find out how many households serve breakfast in the mornings. We don’t have much information on the subject to begin with, so we’re going to assume that half of the families serve breakfast: this gives us maximum variability. So p = 0.5. Now let’s say we want 95% confidence, and at least 5 percent—plus or minus—precision. A 95 % confidence level gives us Z values of 1.96, per the normal tables, so we get
((1.96)2 (0.5) (0.5)) / (0.05)2 = 385.
So a random sample of 385 households in our target population should be enough to give us the confidence levels we need.
Modification for the Cochran Formula for Sample Size Calculation In Smaller Populations
If the population we’re studying is small, we can modify the sample size we calculated in the above formula by using this equation:
Here n0 is Cochran’s sample size recommendation, N is the population size, and n is the new, adjusted sample size. In our earlier example, if there were just 1000 households in the target population, we would calculate
385 / (1+( 384 / 1000 )) = 278
So for this smaller population, all we need are 278 households in our sample; a substantially smaller sample size.
- jas
- Donated
-
Princess Royal
- Posts: 8092
- Joined: Fri May 25, 2018 8:33 am
- Location: This space for rent
I am aware how stats work. I do not agree. If they worded it as "Most Trump supporters POLLED" but they did not. They made a broad claim based on 1500 people. Asinine.Aletheia wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:15 amjas wrote: ↑Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:46 pmFrom the posted article...
"The poll from YouGov/The Economist surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults from February 10 through February 12. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. "
1,500 people. Out of HOW many Trump supporters, people who voted for Trump or just people in general? You can not accurately make that claim based on a mere 1500 people. It's asinine.Or watch https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statis ... statisticsCochran’s Sample Size Formula
The Cochran formula allows you to calculate an ideal sample size given a desired level of precision, desired confidence level, and the estimated proportion of the attribute present in the population.
Cochran’s formula is considered especially appropriate in situations with large populations. A sample of any given size provides more information about a smaller population than a larger one, so there’s a ‘correction’ through which the number given by Cochran’s formula can be reduced if the whole population is relatively small.
The Cochran formula is:
Where:
e is the desired level of precision (i.e. the margin of error),
p is the (estimated) proportion of the population which has the attribute in question,
q is 1 – p.
The z-value is found in a Z table.
Cochran’s Formula Example
Suppose we are doing a study on the inhabitants of a large town, and want to find out how many households serve breakfast in the mornings. We don’t have much information on the subject to begin with, so we’re going to assume that half of the families serve breakfast: this gives us maximum variability. So p = 0.5. Now let’s say we want 95% confidence, and at least 5 percent—plus or minus—precision. A 95 % confidence level gives us Z values of 1.96, per the normal tables, so we get
((1.96)2 (0.5) (0.5)) / (0.05)2 = 385.
So a random sample of 385 households in our target population should be enough to give us the confidence levels we need.
Modification for the Cochran Formula for Sample Size Calculation In Smaller Populations
If the population we’re studying is small, we can modify the sample size we calculated in the above formula by using this equation:
Here n0 is Cochran’s sample size recommendation, N is the population size, and n is the new, adjusted sample size. In our earlier example, if there were just 1000 households in the target population, we would calculate
385 / (1+( 384 / 1000 )) = 278
So for this smaller population, all we need are 278 households in our sample; a substantially smaller sample size.
- Aletheia
- Regent
- Posts: 2176
- Joined: Mon May 21, 2018 8:44 pm
- Location: England
True, instead of saying:
They could have said:Fifteen percent of Trump voters found Infowars trustworthy to some degree—4 percent "very trustworthy" and 11 percent "trustworthy."
or even:Fifteen percent of of the sample of Trump voters we polled found Infowars trustworthy to some degree—4 percent "very trustworthy" and 11 percent "trustworthy."
The odds are lower than 1 in 20 that it is not the case that fifteen percent of Trump voters find Infowars trustworthy to some degree, given the size of sample we polled and the results we obtained from polling them.
But do you really find it particular misleading that they simplified it, for their readers? After all, they did provide the explanation lower down, for those interested in the details.
- jas
- Donated
-
Princess Royal
- Posts: 8092
- Joined: Fri May 25, 2018 8:33 am
- Location: This space for rent
Aletheia wrote: ↑Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:08 pmTrue, instead of saying:
They could have said:Fifteen percent of Trump voters found Infowars trustworthy to some degree—4 percent "very trustworthy" and 11 percent "trustworthy."
or even:Fifteen percent of of the sample of Trump voters we polled found Infowars trustworthy to some degree—4 percent "very trustworthy" and 11 percent "trustworthy."
The odds are lower than 1 in 20 that it is not the case that fifteen percent of Trump voters find Infowars trustworthy to some degree, given the size of sample we polled and the results we obtained from polling them.
But do you really find it particular misleading that they simplified it, for their readers? After all, they did provide the explanation lower down, for those interested in the details.
It's Newsweek. I don't expect much.